We are pleased to present our advice to the Tertiary Education Commission (TEC) on training investment for 2026.
For our 2026 advice, we focused on four areas of our wider portfolio: Early childhood education; Health and Wellbeing; Prisoner Management and Youth work
Our advice is available in two formats:
Early Childhood Education Health and Wellbeing Prisoner Management Youth Work
In our advice to TEC, we considered the current demand for early childhood education teachers, alongside the new requirement that as from 1 January 2025, all home-based education deliverers who do not currently hold a L4 or higher relevant qualification, must be qualified or in training in a Level 4 qualification within 6 months of them starting employment.
What we understand
Demand for early childhood teachers is expected to continue to grow due to a shortage of qualified and experienced early childhood teachers. There are also gaps left by many early childhood teachers leaving or retiring. Overall, supply for early childhood teachers is not meeting demand, due to low enrolments and failure to complete.
According to the Census, 30,460 early childhood teachers worked in New Zealand in 2023, a decrease of 6.25% from 2018 However, this is not enough to meet demand, as through November 2024 Seek and Trade Me were advertising approximately 500 jobs relating to Early Childhood teachers.
As a result, early childhood (pre-primary school) teacher appears on Immigration New Zealand’s regional skill shortage list. This means the Government is actively encouraging skilled early childhood teachers from overseas to work in New Zealand.
Challenges remain with visibility of ECE data and pathways. We are engaging with the sector to begin development of a workforce plan to help provide better visibility of the issues and identify potential solutions.
We considered the current challenges in the workforce alongside the new requirement.
Evidence in the Ministerial briefing paper on ECE teacher supply and workforce indicates that in 2021-23 100% of Home-based educators were qualified but the data did not show the level of qualification obtained.
On the basis of the new requirement increasing from 65% to 100% qualified or in training from 2025 we calculate this requirement will mean some 11,000 people in the sector, who may not currently hold the required level of qualification, may need to enrol to undertake training in the first six months of 2025. The existing 100% rate of ‘Qualification’ must be considered, which indicates more than 65% currently hold a qualification. It is estimated that an additional 500 learners may need to enrol in the Level 4 qualification. This figure does not include any people new to the industry, so should be seen as an undercount.
What we advised – provision changes
Qualification/credential: New Zealand Certificate in Early Childhood Education and Care (Level 4) – NZQA: 2850
Advice: Increase EFTS 25% above currently funded places to support expected increased demand driven by requirement change and focus providers on ensuring enrolments and completions to combat decrease in current enrolments.
Qualification/credential: New Zealand Diploma in Early Childhood Education and Care (Level 5) – NZQA: 2851 and New Zealand Diploma in Early Childhood Education and Care (Level 6) – NZQA: 2852
Advice: Increase EFTS 15% above currently funded places to support expected increased demand and focus providers on ensuring enrolments and completions to combat decrease in current enrolments.
Qualification/credential: New Zealand Certificate in Early Childhood Learning and Care (Level 2) – NZQA: 2848 and New Zealand Certificate in Early Learning and Care (Level 2) – NZQA: 4338 and New Zealand Certificate in Early Childhood Education and Care (Introductory Skills) (Level 3) – NZQA: 2849.
Advice: Decrease funded places to allow for increase in investment in L4 qualifications. Decrease should ensure protection of a pathway to remain for those who may need it in this field, however the number of places required at L2 and L3 could be reduced. (L2 and L3 qualifications in this field do not show good completion or progression rates. While a pathway for those who need it should be maintained, we believe less places are required overall, and investment is now better targeted to covering provision of new places to allow for a rapid upskilling in the current (and incipient) workforce in the next 12 months).
References
Early Childhood Teacher (careers.govt.nz)
Ministerial briefing paper on ECE teacher supply and workforce
Snapshot of the teaching profession 2023 (teachingcouncil.nz)
Attracting and Retaining Diverse Kaiako in Early Childhood Education in Aotearoa New Zealand
In our advice to TEC, we considered general workforce shortages in the relevant areas, though reliable specific data is outstanding. (The pending New Zealand Health Workforce Plan will be reviewed by us when it is available. We may provide out of cycle advice to TEC as a result). We provided advice on current changes in provision we would like to see, as well as advice on new products we have developed.
The Mental Health and Addiction Workforce Plan 2024 – 2027 identifies a need to increase clinical and support staff in mental health and addiction. In Toitū te Waiora qualifications this includes an increase of consumer, peer support, and lived experience, and Mental Health and Addiction strands by 90.
Qualification/credential: New Zealand Certificate in Health and Wellbeing (Peer Support) (Level 4) – NZQA: 2989
Advice: Increase by at least 90 enrolments to 410 enrolments, a ~30% increase EFTS in funding. (Enrolments have remained static at approximately 330 learners per year. Provision will need to increase by 27% to meet the needs of the Workforce Plan. 2025 Investment Advice to TEC recommended a 5% increase to this qualification however the Mental Health and Addiction Workforce Plan will greatly increase the need for training in this certificate to deliver 90 qualified workers).
Qualifcation/credential: New Zealand Certificate in Health and Wellbeing (Social and Community Services) (Level 4) – NZQA: 2992
Advice: Increase by at least 500 enrolments to 5500 enrolments, a ~10% increase in EFTS funding. (The Level 4 Certificate will provide community support for those people requiring support in the community not provided through peer support or lived experience. Enrolments have remained static at approximately 5000 learners. 2025 Investment Advice to TEC recommended a 5% increase to this qualification however the Mental Health and Addiction Workforce Plan will greatly increase the need for training in this certificate.)
New Health and Wellbeing Qualification products we advised TEC ‘Support delivery of’
There are significant gaps across the system in qualifications to rapidly upskill the workforce. Our new and pending products detailed below look to address some of these gaps. These essential products for the health workforce were developed in close consultation with the Minister of Health and Te Whatu Ora.
New products available now:
Qualification/credential: Conduct Cervical Screening. (Level 6). NZQA: 5037. Micro-credential.
Why it’s important: This new micro-credential replaces five previously NZQA-approved cervical screening training schemes with a single national micro-credential award. Under the Health (National Cervical Screening Programme) Amendment Act 2021 there are 12,000 responsible clinicians who can take cervical smears, and all of them are now required to complete this new qualification product.
Qualification/credential: Health of the older person – Kaiāwhina-led non-complex support plan review. (Level 3). NZQA: 5038. Micro-credential.
Why it’s important: The purpose of this micro-credential is to empower Kaiāwhina to conduct comprehensive non-complex individual support plan reviews for older adults living in the community.
Qualification/credential: Support a person with Fetal Alcohol Spectrum Disorder (micro credential). (Level 4). NZQA: 5076. Micro-credential; Support a person with Fetal Alcohol Spectrum Disorder (micro credential). (Level 4). NZQA: 5076. Micro-credential; and 40006 – Implement a strengths-based plan to empower and support a person with Fetal Alcohol Spectrum Disorder. Skill Standard.
Why it’s important: These are the first qualification products designed to address the urgent need for Fetal Alcohol Spectrum Disorder informed services in Aotearoa New Zealand.
Minister of Health: Speech to the Fetal Alcohol Spectrum Disorder Symposium 2024 | Beehive.govt.nz A commitment to $2 million of funding across five key initiatives including training of clinicians.
From the Minister’s Speech to the Fetal Alcohol Spectrum Disorder Symposium 2024 | Beehive.govt.nz: “…for instance, the new FASD micro-credential training that includes NZQA unit standards will support best practice for people working alongside and engaging with people living with FASD. These unit standards were developed collaboratively by the team at Toitū te Waiora workforce development council and FASD-CAN Aotearoa.)”
New products to be available by Feb 2026
Qualification/credential: Footcare assistant / podiatry skill standards. Foot and nail care focused.
Why it’s important: New skill standards to meet emerging sector need.
Qualification/credential: Long-term care treatments (Micro-credential) and NZ Certificate in Long Term Condition Care (Qualification).
Why it’s important: New products to meet emerging sector need – respond to developments in long-term care.
Qualification/credential: New Zealand Qualification in Disability Support – title tbc (Level 3) and New Zealand Qualification in Disability Support – title tbc (Level 4).
Why it’s important: These new qualifications will meet the demand identified in our Health and Wellbeing qualification review, for targeted quals for people wishing to pursue a career in disability services.
Mental Health and Addiction Workforce Plan 2024 – 2027
Health and Wellbeing Qualifications Review – Toitū te Waiora (toitutewaiora.nz)
Health and Wellbeing Survey Summary
Speech to the Fetal Alcohol Spectrum Disorder Symposium 2024 | Beehive.govt.nz
Greater investment in FASD support and prevention | Beehive.govt.nz
In our advice to TEC, we considered workforce shortages and the Department of Corrections plans, alongside Budget commitments. We provided advice on current changes in provision we would like to see.
In 2023/24 recruitment of new staff at Ara Poutama Aotearoa|Department of Corrections was approximately 1000 as part of a concerted effort to attract and retain frontline staff. This recruitment campaign continues in 2024/25 year. In part this will address the Budget 2024 initiatives for increased frontline staff to support increasing prisoner numbers ($50M/year is slated for increased staff remuneration and part of the $200M/year allocation for managing increased prisoner numbers).
Most corrections officers complete Level 3 and enrolment numbers are already 14% higher YTD 2024 than for all of 2023. Engagement with the Corrections GTE has indicated that there is a need for pathways to Levels 4 & 5 certificates to help retain staff and facilitate internal transfers and promotions.
While 2024 YTD enrolments are not expected to climb dramatically for the remainder of the year the Correction budget initiatives will be fully funded by the start of 2026.
Qualification/credential: New Zealand Certificate in Prisoner Management (Level 3) – NZQA: 2658 and New Zealand Certificate in Prisoner Management (Level 4) – NZQA: 2659 and New Zealand Certificate in Prisoner Management (Level 5) – NZQA: 3877.
Advice: Increase EFTS by 30% above currently funded places to support expected increased demand in qualifications due to recent recruitment drive and Budget 2024 Corrections initiatives.
Annual Report 2022/23 | Department of Corrections pp. 102-103 staffing
Budget 2024 – Summary of Initiatives – 30 May 2024 (Page 26, Budget initiative funding for 470 more corrections officers and new prisons that will require staffing).
$1.9 billion investment to keep NZ safe from crime | Beehive.govt.nz
In our advice to TEC, we considered workforce shortages, emerging sector needs and relevant government strategies. We provided advice on current changes in provision we would like to see.
The latest data from Census shows that from 2018 there has been a 24.8% increase of Youth Workers in all industries but only 11.8% in Youth Workers in the Toitū te Waiora sectors. While demand is increasing, it is not supported by the trend in enrolments which has decreased by 31.8% from 2022 to 2023, across all levels. Looking at only Levels 4 and 6 the decrease is 47.8%.
Falling enrolments combined with increasing demand means the increase in workforce does not meet the current demand for youth workers as seen in job vacancies data from Trade Me and Seek, where there are over 100 advertised positions for youth workers in New Zealand (November 2024).
An increase in funded places will be needed to achieve the goals of the Child and Youth Wellbeing Strategy and Youth Action Plan.
Qualification/credential: Te Pōkairua mahi Taiohi – Aotearoa (Taumata 6) – NZQA: 3803 and Te Tiwhikete Kaiarahi Taiohi – Aotearoa (Taumata 3) – NZQA: 2448 and Te Tiwhikete Kaiarahi Taiohi – Aotearoa (Taumata 4) – NZQA: 2449.
Advice: Increase EFTS by 25% above currently funded places to support expected increased demand and focus providers on ensuring enrolments and completions to combat decrease in current enrolments.
The Child and Youth Strategy 2024-27 – Ministry of Social Development
